Bet smarter, not harder

Today’s board

Loading the board…

How to read the board

New here? If the columns below mean nothing to you yet, that is the normal starting point, not a you problem. Start at Lesson 1. It is free, there is no signup, and itThere is no signup, and it explains what a price is before it explains what is wrong with one.

A price comparison, not a tip sheet. Every venue’s price on one game, de-vigged and pooled into one fair line, with the arithmetic of how far each price sits from it.

Simple or Quant. Quant adds vig, per-method EV and the consensus panel: same numbers, more arithmetic. Under View, top right.

The bet preview

Each bet on the board is a preview: the flag first, the game, the clock, and the action already priced. Read it top to bottom.

One bet preview, rendered by the board’s own code. Invented game, real arithmetic.
  1. 1The flag: what the board found and how big. +EV means that venue’s price pays above the pooled fair line; Arbitrage means the two best prices lock a return either way; stale? means verify before trusting it. No flag is the common, honest case.
  2. 2The game: who plays, the league, and the start time in your own timezone.
  3. 3The action: the button is a ledger line: the flag’s own percent, then the side and price, then the venue. Tap Bet to log the price to your Report Card, copy the stake, and open the venue’s own slip. Set a bankroll in Report Card and the stake appears in the button, sized at half Kelly, with its basis stated on the line under it.
  4. 4The liquidity: money resting at the current price on the exchange order books. It is money waiting to be matched, not a count of who bet which side. The total up top, each team’s side split left and right, and each exchange’s own total grouped below. A thin book reprices when real size arrives; every figure’s clocks are on the game card.
  5.  Everything else is the tap-through: tap anywhere else on the bet to open the full odds board: every venue’s price on both sides, the fair line, and the line history chart.

Tap a bet: the full odds board

One card, the marks it can carry, rendered by the board’s own code. Venues run left to right, best expected value first. Drag the card sideways to see the rest, or just read the list below, which says the same thing. Invented game, real arithmetic. The green Kalshi live mark is the paid view of the exchange feed; the free board runs two hours behind. A Bills fan built this site, though 10% is about right for the Jets reaching another Super Bowl, last seen in 1969.
  1. 1Teal check: the tick beside the best price available on that side. The two best prices often sit at different venues, as they do here.
  2. 2Green box: a +EV price: it pays more per dollar than the fair line. Jets +950 against a fair +900 is +5.0%.
  3. 3Red note: that venue has not repriced in a while. A great-looking stale price is usually already gone.
  4. 4Fair line: every venue de-vigged and pooled in log-odds. Too few venues qualify and it prints nothing rather than a confident guess.
  5. 5The line below it: that fair line’s confidence and venue count, then when the price was pulled and when the venue last moved it. The free board runs on a stated delay.
  6. *Asterisk venue: priced for comparison, never flagged. Tap any price to log it; licensed venues also open the bet there. Plain links, unpaid.
  7. ◆Yellow arbitrage badge: two best prices summing under 100%. Rare on a lopsided game: here they sum to 100.3%.
  8. –No marks at all: the common case, and the honest one. Any strictly positive edge is flagged, however small; a true zero never is, and over $0.15 per $1 is treated as a bad line, not an opportunity.

Around a dozen venues, the Kalshi exchange among them, plus an offshore reference tail marked with an asterisk and never flagged. Moneylines, pregame. How the fair line is built, in full →

Report Card

Tap a price on the Live Board and it lands here, graded against the de-vigged benchmark: closing line value, scored like homework.

Grades score your price against the benchmark's fair value: provisional before the game, frozen at the close after. They grade the price, not the result: a well-priced bet still loses often. Where this card is kept is stated above, per tier.

Grading one price you were quoted, without the logbook: the closing line value calculator →
Why beating the close measures skill faster than profit does: the CLV lesson →