No. Keno carries one of the worst house edges in the casino, typically 20% to 35%, versus about 0.5% for blackjack or 1.4% on the craps pass line. The payouts are a small fraction of the true odds, so over the long run keno keeps around 25 cents of every dollar wagered.

Keno Odds: The Worst House Edge on the Floor

Q: What is the house edge on keno?

Keno's house edge typically runs 20% to 35%, and lands around 25% on a common ticket. It is set by the pay table: the casino pays winning spots at a small fraction of their true odds, so the expected value is roughly −25% per dollar no matter which spot you play.

Q: What are the odds of hitting all 10 numbers in keno?

About 1 in 8.9 million. With 20 of 80 numbers drawn, the chance that all 10 of your picks are among the 20 drawn is C(20,10) / C(80,10) ≈ 0.0000001122, or roughly 1 in 8,911,711. The top prize pays only a tiny fraction of that true price.

Q: Can you beat keno with lucky numbers or a system?

No. Every draw is independent and every number is equally likely, so no lucky-number pattern, hot-number chart, or betting system changes the odds. The house edge is fixed in the pay table, which pays winners far short of fair, so keno cannot be beaten over the long run.

By Alex Thornton · author of the MIT-licensed teachersbettextbook library · Last reviewed 24 July 2026

Every casino game charges a tax. Blackjack: about half a percent. The craps pass line: one and a half. Keno pockets 20 to 35 cents of every dollar. That’s the worst house edge on the main floor, and it hides in a pay table that looks generous until you check it against the true odds.

Part of the house edge, game by game, our casino-math series. Category: designed to lose. No skill, independent draws, the steepest tax in the building.

How to read this game: expected value and the house edge

Keno is simple. Mark a set of numbers (a “spot”) and the casino draws 20 of 80. Match enough and the pay table pays. No dealer, no decisions, nothing to be good at.

So the only question is the ticket’s expected value: each way to win, weighted by its probability, minus the stake:

\mathrm{EV} = \sum_i p_i \cdot \text{payoff}_i \; - \; 1

Here $p_i$ is the chance of catching exactly $i$ of your numbers, $\text{payoff}_i$ the return per $1, and the $-1$ the dollar you paid. Fair lands at $\mathrm{EV} = 0$ . Keno’s pay tables push the sum deeply negative. The house edge is just $-\mathrm{EV}$ . Watch it on the simplest ticket.

Worked example: the 1-spot

p = \frac{20}{80} = 25\% \quad\Rightarrow\quad \text{fair payout} = \frac{1}{0.25} = \text{4 for 1}

\text{casino pays 3 for 1:}\quad \mathrm{EV} = 0.25 \times 3 - 1 = -0.25 = -25\%

Pick one number. The draw covers 20 of 80, so it’s caught

20/80 = 25\%

of the time. A fair game pays 4 for 1. The casino pays 3 for 1: a

25\%

house edge, right in the open. Every other keno ticket is the same trick under more numbers.

The jackpot is the bait

The 1-spot robs in the open. Multi-spot tickets bury it: the true odds go astronomical and the payouts don’t keep up. The 10-spot is the poster child: a $1 shot at a headline jackpot, priced like a lottery ticket. Against you.

Worked example: catching all 10

p_{10} = \frac{\binom{20}{10}}{\binom{80}{10}} = \frac{184{,}756}{1{,}646{,}492{,}110{,}120} \approx 1.12 \times 10^{-7}

\frac{1}{p_{10}} \approx 8{,}911{,}711 \quad\Rightarrow\quad \text{about 1 in 8.9 million}

All ten picks must land among the 20 drawn. True odds: roughly 1 in 8.9 million.^[1] A fair payout would be about

\$8.9\text{ million}

for your $1. Real boards top out near

\$100{,}000

, barely

\tfrac{1}{89}

of the fair price.

Whatever the ticket, the tax is the same

A real 10-spot also pays smaller amounts for catching 5 through 9, and the full expected value blends every outcome. Grind through any honest pay table and the answer barely moves: about $-25\%$ , ranging from bad to worse by ticket and casino.^[1] Nevada’s ledger agrees: statewide, keno kept 27.49% of every dollar wagered over the twelve months ending May 2026.^[2]

Worked example: the range you’re really facing

\text{house edge} = -\mathrm{EV} \approx 20\%\text{–}35\% \quad(\text{typical} \approx 25\%)

\text{compare: blackjack} \approx 0.5\%, \quad \text{craps pass line} \approx 1.4\%

Roughly

20\%

35\%

: forty to fifty times the tax of a blackjack hand for the same dollar. Same floor, wildly different price, and keno never makes you do the arithmetic.

Why you can’t beat it, long-term

Some games leave a crack for skill. Card counting in blackjack is the famous one. Keno leaves none. Every draw is an independent pull of 20 balls from 80; every number is equally likely, every game.

P(\text{your numbers hit} \mid \text{last 100 draws}) = P(\text{your numbers hit})

That kills every keno “system.” The draw has no memory: a number up five games running is exactly as likely next game as one that hasn’t shown all night. The “hot” and “cold” boards the casino posts are the gambler’s fallacy dressed up as data.

And no lucky pick fixes the real problem: the pay table shortchanges winners by design. Chasing the 10-spot game after game is just chasing a jackpot. The longer the chase, the more certainly the $-25\%$ collects.

The one-line summary

Keno draws 20 of 80 and pays every winning spot far short of true odds: a house edge of roughly $20\%$ to $35\%$ , among the worst on the floor. A single number is a true $25\%$ to catch and still carries a $25\%$ house edge; all ten is a $1\text{ in }8.9$ million shot paid pennies on the fair dollar. Draws are independent: no number, chart, or system moves the odds. The jackpot is the bait. The negative EV is the point.

The same expected-value math prices a sportsbook line. See it work on the free +EV tool, read how expected value finds an edge, or open it in the live app.

Watch it vanish

Six players, $25 a ticket, 1,000 draws, at keno’s ~25% edge. The rare hit teases; the math is merciless. The fastest bleed on the floor.

Want more math?the Nerd Corner

Nerd Corner

Advanced material. Nothing above depends on it.

Where these numbers come from

The probabilities are hypergeometric arithmetic: count the ways, divide. The house edge is not our accusation: Nevada’s regulator publishes what the game keeps.

Ethier, S. N. (2010). The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer. A full keno chapter: hypergeometric catch probabilities and pay-table house advantages, worked exactly.
Nevada Gaming Control Board. “Gaming Revenue Report” (May 2026). The realized take: keno kept 27.49% of every dollar wagered, twelve months ending May 2026. Inside this page’s 20–35% range.

Frequently asked questions

Is keno a good bet?

No. Keno’s house edge is typically 20% to 35%, versus about 0.5% for blackjack or 1.4% on the craps pass line. Over the long run keno keeps around 25 cents of every dollar wagered.

What is the house edge on keno?

Typically 20% to 35%, around 25% on a common ticket. The pay table sets it: winning spots are paid a small fraction of their true odds, so expected value is roughly −25% per dollar on any spot.

What are the odds of hitting all 10 numbers in keno?

About 1 in 8.9 million. With 20 of 80 drawn, the chance all 10 picks land among the 20 is C(20,10) / C(80,10) ≈ 0.0000001122, roughly 1 in 8,911,711. The top prize pays only a tiny fraction of that true price.

Can you beat keno with lucky numbers or a system?

No. Every draw is independent and every number equally likely; no pattern, chart, or system changes the odds. The edge is fixed in the pay table, which pays winners far short of fair.