Teaser Calculator

By Alex Thornton · author of the MIT-licensed teachersbettextbook library · Last reviewed 24 July 2026

A teaser sells you points and charges for them in payout. This page prices the trade: the break-even win rate every leg needs after the tease, and the probability the extra points have to be worth before the ticket matches the straight parlay.

A teaser is a parlay in which every leg’s spread or total is moved a fixed number of points in the bettor’s favor, in exchange for a much shorter combined price. A two-team six-point teaser priced at −110 needs each leg to win 72.37% of the time to break even.

p_{\text{ticket}} = \dfrac{1}{d_T}, \qquad w = \left(\dfrac{1}{d_T}\right)^{1/n} = d_T^{-1/n}

where:

$d_T$ — the teaser’s decimal odds, total return per dollar including stake. American −110 is $d_T = 1.9091$ ; +150 is $d_T = 2.50$ . A teaser is quoted as one price for the whole ticket, not per leg.
$n$ — the number of legs, 2 or more. Every one must win; the ticket is all-or-nothing exactly like a parlay.
$p_{\text{ticket}}$ — the break-even chance for the whole ticket, vig included.
$w$ — the break-even win rate per leg, assuming the legs are equally likely and independent. This is the number the calculator leads with, because a teaser is only ever a claim about $w$ .
$q_B = 1/d_B$ — the break-even of the same leg at its untouched number. At −110, $q_B = 52.38\%$ .
$w - q_B$ — the probability the points must buy, in points of win probability per leg. This is what the tease is being paid for.

Worked example — the numbers in the form below

A two-team six-point teaser priced at −110, built from legs that were posted at −110 before the tease:

d_T = 1.909091 \;\Rightarrow\; p_{\text{ticket}} = \tfrac{1}{1.909091} = 52.38\%

w = 0.523810^{1/2} = 72.37\%, \qquad q_B = 52.38\%

w - q_B = 72.37\% - 52.38\% = +19.99\ \text{probability points per leg}

Two −110 legs parlayed straight pay 3.6446; teased six points they pay 1.9091, which is 47.62% less. So the six points have to lift each leg by roughly 20 probability points just to make the teaser the same price as the parlay it replaced. Whether any particular six points do that is a question about where final margins land — not a question this arithmetic can answer.

The same ticket without the points bought — the parlay calculator →

How a teaser is priced

A teaser has the payoff structure of a parlay and the quoting convention of a single bet: one American number covers the whole ticket. Converting that number to decimal and inverting it gives the chance the ticket has to hit:

p_{\text{ticket}} = \dfrac{1}{d_T}

Splitting that across $n$ equally likely, independent legs takes the $n$ -th root, because the joint probability of independent events is the product:

w^n = p_{\text{ticket}} \quad\Longrightarrow\quad w = p_{\text{ticket}}^{1/n}

The root is what makes teasers deceptive. A three-team teaser at +150 sounds long — the ticket only has to hit 40% of the time — but 40% spread across three legs is $0.40^{1/3} = 73.68\%$ each. Going from two legs to three, the ticket break-even falls 12.38 points, from 52.38% to 40.00%, while the per-leg requirement rises 1.31 points, from 72.37% to 73.68%. The headline price moves in the opposite direction from the thing the legs actually have to do, which is why longer teasers do not look as demanding as they are.

What the points have to be worth

This is the only question a teaser poses, and it has an exact statement. A leg posted at −110 needs 52.38% to break even as a straight bet. Inside a two-team six-point teaser at −110 the same leg needs 72.37%. So the six points have to supply:

w - q_B = 72.37\% - 52.38\% = 19.99\ \text{points of win probability, per leg}

Measured against a de-vigged coin flip instead of the posted −110, the requirement is $72.37\% - 50\% = 22.37$ points. Either way the number is large: 72.37% is a price of −262, so the six points have to move a leg from a coin flip to a heavy favorite.

Legs	Teaser price	Ticket break-even	Per-leg break-even	Points must buy	Payout given up
2	−110	52.38%	72.37%	+19.99 pts	47.62%
2	−120	54.55%	73.85%	+21.47 pts	49.70%
2	−130	56.52%	75.18%	+22.80 pts	51.46%
3	+140	41.67%	74.69%	+22.31 pts	65.51%
3	+150	40.00%	73.68%	+21.30 pts	64.07%
3	+180	35.71%	70.95%	+18.57 pts	59.76%
4	+240	29.41%	73.64%	+21.26 pts	74.40%
4	+300	25.00%	70.71%	+18.33 pts	69.89%

Two columns to read together. “Payout given up” climbs steeply with leg count — a four-team teaser at +300 surrenders 69.89% of the parlay it replaced. “Per-leg break-even” barely moves, sitting between 70% and 76% across the whole grid. That is the shape of the trade at every size on the board: the requirement per leg is stubbornly around three-in-four, and the price paid for it grows with the number of legs.

Where the points come from: 3 and 7

Not all six-point moves are equal, and the reason is the shape of the margin distribution rather than anything in the price. Final margins in the NFL cluster on 3 and 7 far more heavily than on any other number — the two spikes come from the field goal and the touchdown-plus-extra-point. A spread move that carries a leg across both spikes collects more probability than a move of the same size somewhere flat on the curve.

A −8 favorite teased to −2 crosses 7, 6, 5, 4 and 3 — both spikes, as wins.
A +1.5 underdog teased to +7.5 crosses 3 and 7 going the other way — both spikes again.
A −13 favorite teased to −7 crosses 12 through 8, all flat, and stops on 7. A margin of exactly 7 is a push, not a win. The same six points, a materially different purchase.

What this page will not do is tell you that any of those clear 19.99 points. That number is an empirical question about a margin distribution, and it has to be measured from a table of actual final margins — season by season, because scoring rules and two-point conversion rates move it. The extra-point distance changed in 2015 and the margin curve moved with it. Anyone quoting a teaser edge without naming the sample and the seasons is quoting a number with no denominator.

What the calculator does instead: prints $w$ , prints $w - q_B$ , and takes your own estimate of the post-tease win rate as an input so the expected value is visibly a function of your number, not ours. When the estimate lands on the break-even rate, it prints $0.

The objective check: price the teaser against the alternate lines

There is one comparison that needs no probability estimate at all. If the book posts a straight price on the teased number — the alternate line — then parlaying those alternate lines is the same bet as the teaser, and the two prices can be read side by side:

\text{straight parlay of the teased numbers} = \prod_{i=1}^{n} d_{A_i} \quad\text{vs}\quad d_T

Worked example: teaser vs alternate-line parlay

Two legs teased six points. Suppose the book prices those two teased numbers, as ordinary straight bets, at −265 and −245. The teaser is priced at −110.

d_{A_1} = 1.377358, \quad d_{A_2} = 1.408163 \;\Rightarrow\; d_{A_1} d_{A_2} = 1.939546

\dfrac{d_T}{d_{A_1} d_{A_2}} = \dfrac{1.909091}{1.939546} = 0.98430 \;\Rightarrow\; \text{the teaser pays } 1.57\% \text{ less}

Same outcomes, same two numbers, two different prices — and the gap is 1.57% in favor of the alternate-line parlay. Flip the alternate prices to −280 and −260 and the comparison reverses. That is the useful property of this test: it is entirely a price comparison, so it does not inherit anyone’s opinion about the margin distribution. It also has a limit — books do not always post alternate lines that far off the main number, and when they do the prices carry their own margin. Strip it with the no-vig calculator before treating either side as fair.

Pushes change the answer

The formula $w = d_T^{-1/n}$ assumes two outcomes per leg. Teasers routinely land on whole numbers, which adds a third, and books do not agree on how to grade it:

Void the ticket. The stake comes back and nothing else happens. This is the most common rule on two-team teasers.
Reduce the ticket. A three-team teaser drops to a two-team teaser and is re-priced at the shorter number — so a push does not just remove a leg, it moves the whole price.
Grade the push as a loss. Rare, disclosed in the house rules, and it converts a refund into a total loss on the ticket.

The middle rule is the one that breaks arithmetic done in advance, because the ticket you are graded on is not the ticket you priced. Where a tease lands on a whole number, the honest version of this calculation runs the reduced ticket separately and weights the two by how often the push occurs — which is, again, a number from the margin distribution.

Second worked example: a three-team 10-point teaser at +150

d_T = 2.50 \Rightarrow p_{\text{ticket}} = 40.00\%, \qquad w = 0.40^{1/3} = 73.68\%

\text{three } -110 \text{ legs parlayed} = 1.909091^3 = 6.957926 \Rightarrow \text{given up } 1 - \tfrac{2.50}{6.957926} = 64.07\%

w - q_B = 73.68\% - 52.38\% = +21.30\ \text{points per leg}

Ten points per leg instead of six, and the requirement went up — 21.30 points rather than 19.99. The extra leg costs more in compounding than the extra four points are being credited with in price. If your own estimate of the post-tease win rate is 74%, the panel prints an expected value of +1.31% per dollar; at 73.68% it prints $0; at 73% it prints −2.75%. A two-thirds-of-a-point disagreement about

w

flips the sign. That sensitivity, not the teaser rule set, is the real subject of this page.

When to use this calculator

To convert a teaser price into a per-leg requirement. A quoted teaser number is meaningless until it is a win rate; that conversion is the first field of output.
To compare teaser prices across books. −110 versus −120 on a two-teamer is a 1.48-point swing in what each leg has to do. That is a large difference hidden in a small number.
To price the ticket against the alternate lines on the same teased numbers — the one check that needs no probability estimate.
To test your own margin estimate. Put your post-tease win rate in the optional field and read the expected value it implies, including the $0 when it sits exactly on break-even.

What it cannot do: supply the margin distribution. Everything downstream of $w$ is your estimate, and this page is careful to keep it visibly yours.

Common mistakes

Reading the ticket break-even as the leg break-even. A three-teamer at +150 breaks even at 40% — per ticket. Per leg it is 73.68%. The root is doing a lot of work.
Assuming more points is a better deal. The price moves too. A 10-point three-teamer at +150 asks 1.31 points more per leg than a 6-point two-teamer at −110.
Teasing through nothing. Six points across a flat stretch of the margin curve buys much less than six points across 3 and 7 — identical price, different purchase.
Teasing onto a key number. Landing exactly on 3 or 7 converts the most common margins into pushes rather than wins, and push rules vary by book.
Ignoring correlation. Two legs in the same game, or two legs pointing at the same weather, are not independent, and the $w^n$ step assumes they are.
Quoting a teaser edge without a sample. The margin distribution moves with the rules — the extra-point change in 2015 moved it. An edge computed on an old sample is an edge computed on a different game.

Check this number yourself

The conversion underneath the whole page — moneyline_to_odds — is a public function in the MIT-licensed teachersbettextbook package. The teaser math is one reciprocal and one root on top of it:

pip install teachersbettextbook

from teachersbettextbook import moneyline_to_odds

n       = 2
d_T     = 1 + moneyline_to_odds(-110)   # 1.9090909...
ticket  = 1 / d_T                       # 0.5238095...
per_leg = ticket ** (1 / n)             # 0.7237470...
q_base  = 1 / (1 + moneyline_to_odds(-110))
must_buy = per_leg - q_base             # 0.1999375 -> 19.99 points

Same inputs, same digits, no account required. More on what is open and what is not: open source.

A teaser is a parlay with the numbers moved and the payout cut, so the two pages belong together: the parlay calculator prices the untouched version, the no-vig calculator strips the margin out of any leg, and expected value is where an estimate becomes a number. For the other two structures that reprice the same game rather than the same ticket, see the round robin calculator and the middle calculator. The compounding-vig story that sits underneath all of them is in Betting Mistakes.

Frequently asked questions

What is a teaser bet?

A teaser is a parlay in which every leg’s spread or total is moved a fixed number of points in the bettor’s favor, in exchange for a much shorter combined price. Every leg still has to win, so the ticket keeps the parlay’s all-or-nothing structure while trading payout for cushion.

What win rate does a teaser leg need?

It is the reciprocal of the teaser’s decimal odds, raised to the power 1/n, where n is the number of legs. A two-team teaser at −110 has decimal odds 1.9091, so the ticket breaks even at 52.38% and each of the two legs must win 0.5238^(1/2) = 72.37% of the time. A three-team teaser at +150 needs 73.68% per leg.

How much do the teaser points have to be worth?

The difference between the teased break-even and the untouched leg’s break-even. Legs posted at −110 need 52.38% each as straight bets; inside a two-team teaser priced at −110 the same legs need 72.37%. The six points therefore have to add about 19.99 probability points per leg before the teaser matches the straight parlay. Whether any specific six points do that is a question about the margin distribution, which this page does not assert.

Why do the key numbers 3 and 7 matter in NFL teasers?

Final margins in the NFL cluster on 3 and 7 far more heavily than on any other number, so a spread move that carries a leg across those two values collects more probability than a move of the same size elsewhere on the curve. A tease that stops on 3 or 7 rather than through it converts wins into pushes. The size of each spike has to be measured from a margin distribution; this page prints the probability the points must buy, not a claim that they buy it.

How much payout does a teaser give up?

Compare the teaser price against the straight parlay of the same legs. Two −110 legs parlayed pay 3.6446 per dollar; teased six points at −110 they pay 1.9091 — 47.62% less. A three-team 10-point teaser at +150 pays 2.50 against the parlay’s 6.9579, giving up 64.07%. That surrendered payout is the price of the points.

What happens if a teaser leg pushes?

It depends on the book’s rule, and the rule changes the arithmetic. Some books void the whole ticket and refund the stake; others drop the teaser down one leg and re-price it, so a 3-team teaser becomes a 2-team teaser at a shorter price; a few grade the push as a loss. The break-even formula on this page assumes no pushes, so a ticket teased onto a whole number needs its own treatment.